A Historic Number of Electors Defected, and Most Were Supposed to Vote for Clinton

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The Electoral College on Monday voted for Donald J. Trump to win the presidency. Seven electors, the most ever, voted for someone other than their party’s nominee.

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In Washington, a state where Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont had strong support in the Democratic primary against Hillary Clinton, three of the state’s 12 electoral votes went to Colin L. Powell, the Republican former secretary of state. One more elector voted for Faith Spotted Eagle, a Native American leader. Another Democratic elector in Hawaii voted for Mr. Sanders.

Two Texas electors voted for different Republican politicians: Gov. John Kasich of Ohio and former Texas congressman Ron Paul.

In addition, three Democratic electors, in Colorado, Maine and Minnesota, initially declined to vote for Mrs. Clinton. Two were replaced by an alternate, and one ended up changing his vote.

Protest Votes in the Electoral College

Electors are not required by the Constitution to vote for a particular candidate. Some states and parties require their electors to pledge to vote for a candidate and may fine or replace electors who break their pledge.

It is rare for more than one elector to vote against the party’s pledged candidate, but it has happened on a few occasions.

In 1808, six New York electors from the Democratic-Republican Party refused to vote for James Madison and instead voted for the party’s vice-presidential candidate, George Clinton.

The last time an elector voted for a candidate from another party was in 1972, when a Republican from Virginia voted for the Libertarian candidate, John Hospers, instead of the eventual winner, Richard M. Nixon. A single elector has refused to vote for the party’s presidential candidate in 11 elections.

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The next President of the United States Donald Trump!

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“They said we could never do it.

But last night you showed the world that America will once again be a country of, for, and by the PEOPLE.

You fought like a winner, you defied all odds, and history will forever remember the role you played in taking our country back.

I never could’ve done it without you.

Last night we learned that America is still a beacon of hope where the impossible is possible.

For far too long, we’ve heard Washington politicians give the excuse that “it can’t be done.” They say we can’t balance the budget, we can’t stop corruption, we can’t control the border, we can’t bring jobs back to our country.

I REFUSE to accept that it can’t be done. This is the country that declared its independence, won two world wars, and landed a man on the moon. This is America. We can and we WILL get it done.

Now it’s time to start uniting our country and binding the wounds of our divided nation. I promise to be a president for ALL Americans. I will work for you. I will fight for you. And I will win for you.

You will soon remember what it’s like to win as an American.

Thank you and God bless you,

Donald J. Trump”

Poll: Republicans Trust Trump Over Ryan

New survey suggests GOP voters looking for populist leadership to carry the party into the future.

A majority of Republicans trust Donald Trump more than House Speaker Paul Ryan to lead the party, according to an NBC/Survey Monkey poll released Tuesday.

The poll showed that 63 percent of Republican respondents trusted Trump’s leadership over Ryan’s, while 34 percent preferred to place their trust in Ryan over Trump. When Democrats were asked the same question, 84 percent said they trusted Ryan more as a leader — while just 4 percent picked Trump.

When Trump supporters were isolated as a separate group and asked whose leadership they trusted more for the GOP, 72 percent chose Trump, while just 25 percent chose Ryan. When the supporters for Hillary Clinton, Gary Johnson, and Jill Stein were separated, 2 percent, 13 percent, and 12 percent picked Trump over Ryan, respectively.

This poll comes amid internal Republican Party upheaval over which wing of the GOP should take the helm after the 2016 election.

Trump and Ryan have engaged in several contentious spats — most notably when the House speaker announced after the release of the 11 year-old “Access Hollywood” tape that he would no longer campaign with Trump and instead would focus his efforts on re-electing and maintaining a Republican Congress.

At the time, Trump lambasted Ryan in a barrage of tweets and in verbal remarks.

The GOP nominee offered a more conciliatory message during a rally in Florida Sunday. 

“Go out and vote — and that includes helping me re-elect Republicans all over the place,” Trump urged his supporters, saying that a “Republican House and Senate” was key to implementing his agenda as president.

“I hope they help me too! It’d be nice if they help us too, right?” Trump couldn’t help adding.

The poll featured the responses of 32,225 likely voters and was issued between Oct. 17-23.

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2016 Presidential Polls Latest: Trump Leads Clinton in Recent Polls

The latest 2016 presidential polls show Donald Trump is gaining on Hillary Clinton as the election steams toward its final days.

Two recent national polls (IBD and Rasmussen) show Trump with a lead (both partly measuring voter attitudes after the third presidential debate), and he’s doing well in some battleground states, like Ohio, but Clinton leads in a series of others. Clinton leads in a third recent poll (Reuters) but that poll shows Trump gaining on her.

Trump’s improvement in some recent polls comes after days of media coverage battering Trump over multiple women accusing Trump of unwanted physical contact, his lewd comments to former Access Hollywood host Billy Bush, and the third presidential debate. It also comes after a series of WikiLeaks’ releases of documents from a hack of the email account of Clinton’s campaign chairman John Podesta.

Some of the polls have found voters are receptive to Trump’s claims that the election is rigged and/or that the news media are biased.

The RealClearPolitics polling average from October 10 through October 21 has Clinton with an average 6.1 percent lead, slightly down from a few days ago but still significant. When Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Party nominee Jill Stein are included, though, Clinton’s average lead shrinks to 5.3 percent. That polling average time frame mostly includes the time frame before the October 19 presidential debate, however.

Here’s what you need to know:


Recent National Polls


IBD/TIPP Tracking

CANDIDATE VOTE
Trump 42%
Clinton 40%

Trump’s lead in the IBD/TIPP poll is within the margin of error, meaning the race is back to a virtual tie in this poll.

The poll was conducted October 16-21. The acronyms stand for Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) and TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence (TIPP), and the poll touts itself as the most accurate in recent presidential elections. Trump does best in the South, and Clinton does best in the Northeast. (Gary Johnson has his strongest performance in the Midwest).

This is one of the first national polls to capture the time frame after the third presidential debate.


Rasmussen Reports

CANDIDATE VOTE
Trump 43%
Clinton 41%

The new Rasmussen poll is also good news for Trump, although his lead is in the margin for error, making the race a virtual tie in this poll.

The poll was conducted October 18-20, partly after the third presidential debate. A small lead among voters not affiliated with either political party is helping Trump.


Reuters/IPSO

CANDIDATE VOTE
Clinton 44%
Trump 40%

Although the Reuters poll shows Clinton leading by 4 percentage points, just outside the poll’s credibility interval, it also represents a fairly significant improvement for Trump, who was behind by seven points in the same poll the week before. This poll surveyed people from October 17-21.

The poll also found that only half of Republicans would accept Clinton as their president with most believing the election is rigged.



Quinnipiac

CANDIDATE VOTE
Clinton 47%
Trump 40%

Clinton does better in the Quinnipiac poll than in some other recent polls. This is a more dated than those above, however. The poll was conducted October 17-18 before the third presidential debate.

Trump’s lead with whites and men “all but vanishes” in the poll. The poll found that most voters felt the news media is biased against Trump but also believe Trump is not fit to be president.


Economist/YouGov

CANDIDATE VOTE
Clinton 42%
Trump 38%

This poll was conducted October 15-18. That means it was before the third presidential debate.

Clinton’s lead is right at the 4 percent margin of error.


Recent Battleground Polls


Florida: Fox 13/Opinion Savvy

CANDIDATE VOTE
Clinton 49%
Trump 45%

This is the first Florida poll since the third presidential debate, which was on October 19. It was conducted the following day. However, the margin for error is 4.2 percent, meaning Clinton’s lead is within it.

The polling results were an increase in 1 percent for Clinton from the previous poll. The poll did show Trump winning early and absentee voters. People polled thought Clinton won the third debate but by a lower margin than was seen with previous debates.


Ohio – Suffolk University

CANDIDATE VOTE
Trump 44.8%
Clinton 44.6%

The most recent poll in this key swing state shows the race is a tie. The poll was conducted October 17 to 19, outside of the third presidential debate in part.

The last four polls in Ohio before that one showed a tie, two showed a Trump lead, and one showed a Clinton lead in the margin for error.


Pennsylvania: Emerson

CANDIDATE VOTE
Clinton 45%
Trump 41%

Although Clinton leads in Pennsylvania, this poll is just outside of the margin of error and shows a slightly lower margin that she’s seen in other Pennsylvania polling.

The poll was conducted October 17-19. The same poll also showed Trump leading in Utah and Missouri, and Clinton leading in New Hampshire.


Virginia: Christopher Newport University

CANDIDATE VOTE
Clinton 45%
Trump 33%

The most recent polling in Virginia shows that Clinton has broken into a large lead, although this poll’s margin was higher for Clinton than in other Virginia polls (she has led in the last four polls).


Georgia: Landmark Communications

CANDIDATE VOTE
Trump 47%
Clinton 43%

This poll was conducted October 20 after the third presidential debate. Trump’s lead is exactly at the margin for error.

Slightly more people thought Clinton won the debate, although there was a gender gap with men saying they thought Trump won it. Clinton has been gaining somewhat in recent Georgia polling.

What If All the Polls Are Wrong? Signs abound that Trump could be doing far better than the MSM says

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For all those sipping a cocktail right now in a Manhattan skyscraper, toasting the swift demise of one Donald J. Trump, here’s a fly in your pretentious dirty martini: There are signs that the belligerent billionaire may be doing significantly better in the presidential race than many polls indicate.

New voter registration is surging in several swing states and appears to be lopsided in favor of the Republican Party. Moreover, a recent analysis of absentee ballots in Florida reveals an unprecedented number of low-propensity voters registered this year — presumably to support the outsider candidate (hint: It’s not Hillary Clinton).

“Nobody’s been polling these people, nobody’s been marketing to these people.”

“Republicans have continued gaining ground in recent months in voter registration in Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Iowa,” Politico reported last week. In Pennsylvania, more than 85,000 former Democrats have switched to the Republican Party this year. This is nearly three times the number of those who made the opposite switch.

In North Carolina, Politico reported, “Democrats’ voter registration advantage shrunk by 44,000 between June 2015 and May 2016” and their “advantage had dwindled to 641,000” as of Aug. 13. In Florida, Republicans have added nearly 70,000 voters and the Democrats’ registration advantage has more than halved since 2012.

Florida Primary Election Absentee Ballots
  • 855,000 ballots cast by mail by Aug. 25
  • Over 25% from voters who didn’t vote in the last 4 elections
  • 20% from voters who voted in 1 of the last 4 elections
  • New primary voters include 90,000 Republicans
Source: Tampa Bay Times

Data from Florida also suggests this election could see an unprecedented turnout of first-time or second-time voters. In examining absentee ballots for the upcoming Florida Senate primary election, the Florida Chamber of Commerce discovered “a huge spike in mail voting by people who rarely vote in primary elections,” the Tampa Bay Times reported.

According to the report, nearly half of the mail ballots returned for the primary election are from those who voted in one or fewer of the last four primary elections. “We’re in unprecedented, uncharted territory,” said Florida Chamber President and CEO Mark Wilson. “Nobody’s been polling these people, nobody’s been marketing to these people.”

No one has been polling these people — and these people may very well decide the election. This is one of the reasons why most of the polls which have shown Trump losing in a landslide are not to be trusted — most polling companies reach out to those who are historically politically active, not those who are historically apathetic.

Furthermore, many of the polls which paint the most depressing picture for the Trump campaign are heavily weighted toward registered Republicans and Democrats, when in reality most registered American voters are independent — and independent voters appear to lean Trump. A recent Emerson poll for example found that Trump leads independents in Ohio by 47 percent to 30 percent, 39 percent to 38 percent in Michigan, and 43 percent to 37 percent in Pennsylvania. Some studies have also indicated that Trump consistently performs better in anonymous, online polls, suggesting that he has stronger support than many traditional polls seem to indicate.

“We saw the commentariat and we saw the polling industry doing everything they could to demoralize our campaign,” Brexit proponent Nigel Farage told a crowd of jubilant Trump supporters last week. They may very well be doing the same thing in the U.S. But even within polling industry weighted in Clinton’s favor, there are signs she’s slipping. A new Monmouth poll released Monday showed Clinton’s lead sinking to only 7 points over Trump.

“This is huge,” said Marian Johnson, an expert on Florida politics and the senior vice president of political strategy for the Florida Chamber of Commerce, of the Florida absentee ballot revelations.

“I can envision election night when the votes are counted that certain people win that nobody thought had a chance, and that being attributed to this trend.” Right now nobody — well, nobody in the commentariat, anyway — thinks Trump has a chance. They could be wrong.

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Trump pollster: ‘There’s a big hidden Trump vote’

They’re not exactly the Nixon era “silent majority,” but both Republican and Democratic pollsters claim that there is a secret vote for Donald Trump showing up in some polls.

The Trump campaign on Sunday stated flatly there is a “big hidden Trump vote” in the nation.

And during the recent Democratic convention, a top pollster agreed, saying there is a “secret Trump vote.”

Longtime Republican pollster and Trump advisor Kellyanne Conway explained on the Today show that the hidden vote is seen when anonymous online polls are compared to phone call interview polls where people have to be more public in stating who they support.

For example, the new Reuters poll had Trump and Hillary Clinton just three points apart, where others that are phone survey based out Sunday showed a greater gap.

“The Reuters poll, which is an online poll, where Donald Trump is three points behind Hillary Clinton nationally, and I think that the important point to note there is that when you have online polls as opposed to telephone polls, Mr. Trump tends to do better, and that’s because the online polls approximate the ballot box, where you’re issuing your vote privately,” she said.

“We think there’s a big hidden Trump vote in this country,” said Conway, who added that Trump internal polls project “tighter” results in battleground states.

Her comments echoed those from Democratic pollster Celinda Lake who during the Democratic convention said that her side sees a secret Trump vote among white males.

“I worry that there is a bit of a secret Trump vote,” said the influential pollster at an event attended by Secrets.

She has proof revealed in polls that find more white male support when live people are doing the interviewing and less support for Clinton in anonymous online surveys.

“The pattern is in the online surveys, even if you control for demographics, Trump does three to nine points better than in telephone surveys. So it really does suggest that there is a secret vote for Donald Trump,” said Lake.

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BOOM! Trump Holds 66% Favorable Rating in New York – Leads Hillary Clinton by 19 Points in Empire State

Donald Trump holds a 66% favorable rating in New York and leads Republican candidates by nearly 30 points in the latest Liberty Opinion Research survey.

Donald Trump 52%
John Kasich 23%
Ted Cruz 19%
Not sure 6%
NET TRUMP: +29%

Donald Trump holds a 66% favorable rating in the Empire State.
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Trump leads Ted Cruz by 23 points in favorability ratings.
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And Donald Trump leads Hillary Clinton by 19 points when voters are asked who will likely be the next president.

Donald Trump 46%
Hillary Clinton 27%
Ted Cruz 14%
Bernie Sanders 7%
John Kasich 6%

NET TRUMP: 19%

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